IMPLEMENTATION OF DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTS ON THE CASE OF CHILDREN IN THE CENTER OF INTEGRATED SERVICE OF WOMEN EMPOWERMENT AND CHILDREN
Abstract
The high number of cases of violence in children today is increasing. Among the cases of child abuse are physical torture, sexual harassment and neglect. Every year violence in children increases with different patterns of behavior. Various efforts were made by the government to campaign for child protection legislation. To forecast an increase or decrease in child abuse patterns over the next 5 years, an inhalamanation-based forecasting system is needed. This inhalamanation system is expected to predict how many cases of child abuse that occur from the time in the future. Double expoential smoothing method is the most widely used method to determine the equation of second smoothing data trend through smoothing process. This forecasting system captures the pattern of past data then used to project future data. The purpose of this system is to provide an idea of ??the level of violence in children. The variables used in this system are the types of cases of domestic violence / Traumatic cases of Persecution, Kidnapping cases, Rape cases and Sodomy case types. The case of violence predicted for four years previous year is in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015. Then processed using the method of double expnential smoothing by looking for the equation of the trend first and followed by looking for second smoothing and forecasting results of the type of violence in the next year that is 2016.
The special target of this forecasting system is to project a pattern of child abuse that is still frequent and predict patterns of violence in children for the next few years. This is done to prepare everything needed to handle cases of violence in the future. Long-term goal to predict the level of violence in children for the next 10 years. This is expected to anticipate the acts of violence that occur in children by looking at previous forecasting data.
Downloads
References
[2] Baroroh, A. (2013). Analisis Multivarlant dan Time Series dengan SPSS 21. Media Komputindo, Jakarta.
[3] Fachrurrazi, S. (2015). Peramalan Penjualan Obat Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing pada Toko Obat Bintang Geurugok. Jurnal Techsi.
[4] Ginting, R. (2010). Sistem Produksi. Graha Ilmu, Yogyakarta.
[5] Prasetia, R. dkk. (2004). Teori dan Praktek Interfacing Port Paralel dan Port Serial Komputer dengan Visual Basic 6.0. Andi Publisher, Yogyakarta.
[6] Prihartanto, Y. L. (2011). Sistem Informasi Manajemen Agenda pada Badan Pelayanan Perijinan Terpadu Kabupaten Karanganyar. Journal Sentra Penelitian Engineering dan Edukasi (Speed).
[7] Priyadna, A. dkk. (2013). Pembuatan Sistem Informasi Nilai Akademik Berbasis SMS Gateway pada SMP Negeri 3 Pringkuku Pacitan. Jurnal Indonesian Journal on Networking and Security (IJNS).
[8] Rahmadayanti, R. dkk. (2015). Perbandingan Keakuratan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Dan Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Penjualan Semen di PT.Sinar Abadi. Jurnal Rekursif.
[9] Simarta, J. dkk. (2010). Basis Data. Andi Publisher, Yogyakarta.
[10] ____________.(2010). Peraturan Menteri Negara Pemberdayaan Perempuan dan Perlindungan Anak Republik Indonesia Nomor 05 Tahun 2010. Jakarta.
Copyright in each article is the property of the author.
- The author acknowledges that the Jurnal Ecotipe (Electronic, Control, Telecommunication, Information, and Power Engineering) has the right to publish for the first time with a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
- The author can enter the writing separately, regulate the non-exculsive distribution of manuscripts that have been published in this journal into other versions (for example: sent to the author's institution respository, publication into books, etc.), by acknowledging that the manuscript was first published in the Jurnal Ecotipe (Electronic, Control, Telecommunication, Information, and Power Engineering);
